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Peso Weekly #2 – GDP Forecast Cut, $2B Deficit, and BrahMos Delivered

Peso Weekly #2 – GDP Forecast Cut, $2B Deficit, and BrahMos Delivered

Melvin Bernardino & John Taclob
April 24, 2025

Free Financial, Business and Investment news for Filipinos in 5 minutes

📬 To our Smart & Curious Subscribers,

You made it to Issue #2—proof that you're part of the growing crew who actually reads the news before you drink your kape. This week, the economic weather forecast is… slightly stormy. The IMF just trimmed the Philippines' 2025 growth outlook to 5.5% (ops), while our balance of payments took a $2B dip in March. Translation: we’re spending more than we’re earning—again.

But it’s not all red flags. In the Defense Download, the Philippines just unboxed the second batch of BrahMos missiles from India (supersonic, not symbolic). We break down what that means for our regional strategy—and our spending.

Also new this week: our atbp section. It’s like a financial palate cleanser—unexpected reads, trivia, trends, and tsek-worthy tidbits from around the web. Tap the bolded links to explore more.

Next issue? We’re bringing in money tips and guides to help you budget smarter, invest wiser, and flex that financial literacy. Let’s build the habit, one scroll at a time.

Markets
Local Market at a Glance (as of April 23, 2025)

Corporate Finance Institute

PSEi: 6,168.48 ▲ +22.89 (+0.37%)
BSP Rates: 5.50% (borrowing) | 5.00% (deposit) | 6.00% (lending)

🌐 Global Markets

Bitcoin: $92,939.14 ▼ -0.49%
Gold: $3,281.87/oz ▼

💱 Exchange Rates (PHP per 1 unit)

🇺🇸 USD: ₱56.55
🇬🇧 GBP: ₱75.21
🇸🇦 SAR: ₱15.08
🇯🇵 JPY: ₱0.396
🇪🇺 EUR: ₱64.96
🇦🇪 AED: ₱15.40
Note: Exchange rates may vary slightly depending on provider.

Economy
IMF Downgrades Philippines' 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 5.5% Amid Global Trade Tensions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 GDP growth projection for the Philippines downward to 5.5%, from the previous estimate of 6.1%. This adjustment reflects the impact of escalating global trade tensions, particularly the imposition of new U.S. tariffs on Filipino exports, which have heightened economic uncertainty and dampened investor confidence .

Despite the downgrade, the IMF notes that the Philippines is still expected to be among the fastest-growing economies in emerging Asia, second only to India. The country's robust domestic consumption and manageable inflation rates provide some resilience against external shocks.

The IMF also suggests that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has room to adjust monetary policy to support growth, given the current inflation outlook. However, the central bank has indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, aiming to avoid potential inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability .

Stay informed with Peso Weekly for the latest updates on economic developments affecting the Philippines.

BOP Goes Pop: Philippines Logs $2B Deficit in March

If economic headlines were high school report cards, the Philippines’ March balance of payments (BOP) would’ve come home with a big red “Needs Improvement” scrawled across the top.

After flexing a strong $3.1B surplus in February, March flipped the script and delivered a $2 billion deficit. That’s the biggest monthly shortfall in over a year, and it brought Q1’s total deficit to $3B—not exactly the trajectory BSP had in mind when it forecasted a $2.1B full-year surplus.

Wait—what even is the balance of payments?

Think of the BOP like the country’s giant Excel sheet that tracks money flowing in and out. Exports, remittances, foreign loans, investments? That’s the “in.” Imports, debt payments, and anything else we spend internationally? That’s the “out.”

In March, the “out” side of the ledger went wild.

Who maxed out the national credit card?

Well, mostly the national government, which made hefty foreign debt repayments—basically paying the minimum balance on a bunch of UTANG. Add in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) tapping its dollar reserves to stabilize the peso (which has been on the ropes due to global trade jitters), and that’s a whole lot of dollars exiting stage left.

According to BSP, the deficit was driven by “net outflows from the financial account, particularly in the form of net repayment of foreign loans and net foreign portfolio investments.” In plain English? We paid foreign debt and investors pulled back. Boom: BOP deficit.

Is this panic-worthy? Not yet. The Philippines still has a healthy $106.7B in gross international reserves, enough to cover 7.4 months of imports and settle short-term obligations multiple times over. The fundamentals—strong consumer demand, a still-growing economy, and billions in remittances from OFWs—aren’t exactly crumbling.

But it does raise eyebrows. Especially when the BSP was hoping for a year-end surplus and instead got this spicy little deficit to kick off Q2.

Context: global jitters.This isn’t just a local story. Trade tensions between big economies (cough US-China), newly imposed tariffs on Philippine exports, and uncertain interest rate environments globally are causing risk-off behavior among investors. Translation: they’re yanking money out of emerging markets (like us) and parking it in safer, lower-yield havens.

Peso Weekly Take:

🇵🇭 Translation: Imagine running a sari-sari store, paying off your suppliers in cash, and seeing your till go empty faster than sales come in. That’s us right now.
📉 Watchlist: Peso exchange rate, upcoming government bond issuances, and foreign investor sentiment. One bad quarter doesn’t break the bank—but it can shake confidence.
📊 Money Move: If you’ve got heavy peso exposure, consider hedging or diversifying. And if you’re investing offshore, keep an eye on remittance costs and forex movements.

This BOP dip might be a blip—or it could be the start of a rocky quarter. Either way, we’ll be tracking every cent.

Philippines Defense
Missiles In, Jets in Limbo: PH Bolsters Coastline, Fumbles Skies

Berend Verheijen / Unsplash

In a significant stride toward bolstering its defense capabilities, the Philippines has received the second batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles from India. This delivery is part of a $375 million agreement signed in 2022 between the Philippine government and BrahMos Aerospace, a joint venture between India and Russia. The BrahMos missile, known for its speed of Mach 2.8 and a range of up to 290 kilometers, can be launched from land, sea, and air platforms. The first batch was delivered in April 2024 via Indian Air Force transport aircraft, while the second batch arrived by sea, demonstrating India's growing logistics capabilities in defense exports.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro emphasized the importance of proper deployment and utilization of the missile system to bolster the country's maritime security. The acquisition aligns with the Philippines' ongoing military modernization efforts and its strategy to enhance deterrence against potential threats in the region

However, the Philippines' broader defense procurement plans face challenges due to recent U.S. tariffs on its exports. The U.S. has imposed a 10% levy on Philippine goods, which could impact Manila's ability to fund major weapons acquisitions, including a proposed $5.58 billion purchase of F-16 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez expressed concerns that these tariffs could strain the country's economy and hinder its defense procurement plans.

Romualdez highlighted the Philippines' $4.8 billion trade surplus with the U.S. and positioned the arms deal as a potential economic equalizer. He emphasized the unique U.S.-Philippines alliance, rooted in shared World War II history, and mentioned a potential visit by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Washington, pending scheduling.

The Philippines' defense strategy remains focused on enhancing its capabilities to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity, particularly in the face of growing regional tensions over Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea. The continued collaboration with international partners, such as India and the U.S., is crucial in achieving these objectives.

WORLD NEWS
Ukraine Talks in London Hit Wall Over U.S. Demands

In a significant setback for diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing Ukraine conflict, high-level peace talks scheduled in London have been downgraded after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio abruptly canceled his attendance. The withdrawal comes amid tensions over a U.S.-proposed ceasefire plan that would require Ukraine to cede territory currently occupied by Russian forces, including Crimea

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has issued a stark ultimatum, urging both Ukraine and Russia to accept the proposed terms or risk the U.S. withdrawing from the negotiation process entirely. The proposal includes a ceasefire along current frontlines and mutual recognition of territorial control, a plan that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly rejected, stating, "There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory—the territory of the people of Ukraine."

The downgrading of the talks has led to a ripple effect, with other key participants, including the foreign ministers of France and Germany, also reconsidering their involvement. Meanwhile, Russia has expressed a willingness to halt its invasion along current frontlines but insists on international recognition of its annexation of Crimea. As the situation evolves, the international community watches closely, aware that the window for a peaceful resolution may be narrowing.

Big Tech, Big Fines: EU Slaps Apple and Meta with €700M Penalty

The European Union has levied its first major fines under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), targeting tech giants Apple and Meta for anti-competitive practices. Apple faces a €500 million fine for restricting app developers from directing users to alternative purchasing options outside its App Store, while Meta has been fined €200 million for its "pay or consent" model, which required users to either accept personalized ads or pay for an ad-free experience.
These penalties mark a significant enforcement of the DMA, aimed at curbing the dominance of major digital platforms and promoting fair competition. Both companies have 60 days to comply with the EU's directives or face additional penalties. Apple and Meta have expressed intentions to appeal, arguing that the fines are unjustified and hinder innovation.
The EU's actions have drawn criticism from U.S. officials, who view the fines as disproportionately targeting American companies. This development adds tension to the already complex transatlantic trade relations, especially as discussions around digital market regulations continue to evolve

Singapore’s PM Wong Preps “A-Team” for Next Election

Singapore’s political playlist just dropped a new track—and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is headlining it with one clear message: bring your best or go home. At the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) convention over the weekend, Wong rallied the troops ahead of the upcoming General Election (GE2025), calling on Singaporeans to equip the country with the "best team to take our nation forward."

Translation: it’s game time.

This marks Wong’s first major political address since officially taking over from Lee Hsien Loong, and the stakes? They couldn’t be higher. With economic uncertainties, generational shifts, and rising geopolitical tension, Wong framed the next election not just as a vote—but as a vote of confidence in the continuity of PAP’s long-held leadership legacy.

The new PM kept things grounded and future-forward, emphasizing competence, unity, and continuity, but also sprinkled in a touch of vulnerability: “I do not have all the answers,” he said, but promised a leadership that listens, learns, and leads.

GE2025 may not have a date yet, but with Wong’s speech, the campaign drums have officially started beating.

Airbus Goes Gulf: Jetmaker to Source Titanium from Saudi in New Mega-Deal

In a move that’s got both boardrooms and airstrips buzzing, Airbus has inked a major agreement with Saudi Arabia to source titanium—yes, the same ultra-strong metal used in fighter jets and hip replacements—for its commercial aircraft production line. As part of a broader partnership with Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) and the Ministry of Investment, Airbus is now tapping the Kingdom’s growing aerospace manufacturing capacity.

Why it matters: This isn't just about metal. It’s a power shift. Saudi Arabia wants in on the aviation supply chain, and Airbus wants to diversify away from Russian titanium, which it's relied on for decades. Win-win? Maybe. The titanium will support Airbus’ A320 and A350 programs, and talks are already underway to co-produce jet components in Saudi.

Sports
NBA Playoffs 2025: First-Round Recap as of April 23

Robin Deutsch / Unsplash

Eastern Conference

The Indiana Pacers have taken a commanding 2-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks, winning Game 2 with a score of 123-115. Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's impressive 34 points and 18 rebounds, the Bucks couldn't overcome the Pacers' balanced offense. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton both recorded double-doubles, leading Indiana to victory.

In the series between the New York Knicks and the Detroit Pistons, the Pistons managed to tie the series 1-1 with a 100-94 win in Game 2. Cade Cunningham led Detroit with 33 points and 12 rebounds, helping the team secure their first playoff win since 2008.

The Cleveland Cavaliers currently lead their series against the Miami Heat 1-0, with Game 2 scheduled for April 23. In Game 1, Donovan Mitchell scored 30 points, and Ty Jerome added 28 off the bench, leading the Cavaliers to a 121-100 victory.

The Boston Celtics also lead their series against the Orlando Magic 1-0. In Game 1, Derrick White scored 30 points, including seven three-pointers, helping the Celtics to a 103-86 win.

Western Conference

The Los Angeles Lakers evened their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 1-1 with a 94-85 win in Game 2. Luka Dončić led the Lakers with 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists, while LeBron James contributed 21 points and 11 rebounds.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a 2-0 lead over the Memphis Grizzlies, winning Game 2 with a score of 118-99. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 27 points, supported by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.

The Golden State Warriors currently lead their series against the Houston Rockets 1-0, with Game 2 scheduled for April 23. In Game 1, Stephen Curry scored 31 points, and Jimmy Butler added 25, leading the Warriors to a 95-85 victory.

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are tied at 1-1 in their series. In Game 2, Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, helping the Clippers to a 105-102 win. Nikola Jokić recorded a triple-double for the Nuggets with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists.